By The Cobourg Skeptic
In the 3 months before the December Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, there are three things that will determine what will happen there: 1) Will the U.S. implement Cap & Trade? It looks likely that any action will at least be after the Conference – the U.S. bill is currently stalled in the senate. And given the reaction to the Health bill, it seems unlikely that the Climate Change bill will ever get passed. If it doesn’t, other countries will be reluctant to damage their economy and let the U.S. over-run them (economically).
2) Will anyone listen to the growing number of skeptical scientists? Even though it’s not scientifically significant, actual cooling in the next month or so could easily make a difference to attitudes. And skeptics are not giving up – a parallel alternative conference will be staged in Copenhagen which should get at least some press time. As the organizers put it – if you don’t agree with the main-stream you get no funding. More here
3) As one of the biggest emitters of CO2 and the country with the biggest population, will China join the crowd and “sign-on”? This looks increasingly unlikely. According to an article in the Energy Tribune which quotes Chinese sources, Chinese scientists have found ”no solid scientific evidence to strictly correlate global temperature rise and CO2 concentrations”. Further they say “some geologists believe that global temperature is related to solar activities and glacial periods. At least human activity is not the only factor to cause the global temperature increase. Up to now not a single scientist has figured out the weight ratio of each factor on global temperature change.” If there are to be any quotas, China makes a case for a cumulative limit so that they can get to the same level of development that the western countries currently enjoy. Since statements like these must be approved by the Chinese Government, it is extremely unlikely that China will make any commitment at the Copenhagen conference that puts them at an economic disadvantage. And why should they? A doubtful science coupled with an expectation that new economies should make up for historical emitters does not make a good case for them to sign-on. And although they are less clear on their intentions, India is also unlikely to sign-on. They (and African countries) seem intent on pushing for multi-billion dollar aid from “rich countries” for green projects or compensation for expected effects. Looks like the Copenhagen conference is heading for a disaster – although the press and politicians will no doubt call it a success.Source
2 thoughts on “Copenhagen Conference headed for disaster”
I really hope that the copenhagen conference won't turn up a cropper.
I'm also fairly sure that China will come on board. They recently announced ambitious plans that will probably catapult them to the front of the row.
As far as India goes, it wants two things – the involvement of other countries (and specially the US) as well as assistance with technology transfer. Without that, cutting greenhouse gases will worsen the condition of millions who are already living in poverty.
It's pretty amazing that anyone talks with such confidence about this topic, except those who understand the science and have spent years studying observed data. The fans of this page on facebook look like respected scientists for sure!! Industry has good reasons to find any way to dispute the science, but their motives should be obvious. Scientists are basically calling for creating energy from renewable sources – basically an infrastructure that doesn't exist for a giant demand, creating jobs for millions of people with a much smaller return on investment than the status quo.
Why would industry hand over a profitable business model simply because the poles will melt and half the species on the planet will die? It's not like they are customers – Geez!